Can we predict what will happen in 2021, or are we in for another wildcard year?
Here are four educated predictions
On January 1, 2020 most people outside of China would never have dreamed how profound the extent of the coronavirus would be. In fact, as I click the search bar in The Washington Post’s online platform, I see that the first time the term “coronavirus” was mentioned was on January 20, 2020.
Referred to in one of the first articles as “China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness”, it claimed that “there haven’t been any reported cases of health-care workers becoming infected, which supports early findings that the disease isn’t transmitted easily from person to person.”
This last sentence might make some of us want to laugh and cry at the same time.
It may not come as a surprise that predicting the future is not easy, even though the media often hires pundits to carry out this task, especially when it comes to economic trends.
We would like to believe that predicting global economic outcomes is not so complicated. Many people even believe the global economy is controlled by a small elite, usually a group of extremely powerful men who spend most of their time behind a curtain, pulling the strings however they please, usually in their favor.
But the reality is this: no one individual (or group of individuals) controls the global economy in almost the same way no one controls the wind. The same can be inferred with regards to global events in general.
Sadly (or luckily, depending on how to look at it) there is no Central Command Center in charge of running the show.
But even though the world is more chaotic than many of us like to accept, with enough evidence and a clear, non-biased mind, it’s possible to establish certain probabilities for the near future. Here are four things that may indeed take place in 2021:
- Covid-19: Anthony Fauci, America’s most prominent infectious disease doctor, has said herd immunity is possible by the end of 2021 in the United States. For this to happen, 75 to 80 percent of Americans need to get vaccinated. Globally, the situation will be more complicated, especially with the antivaxxer movement gaining some traction, both in the US and around the world. By the end of 2021, however, the situation should have improved significantly, with life returning to at least semi-normal in wealthier countries that manage to distribute, and convince their citizens to take, the vaccine.
2. Climate Change: Although anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions went down in 2020, the decline was only by 7%. This is a big number when it comes to the global economy, and a record-breaker in our post-industrial world, but it’s minute for the global climate system as a whole, and despite the decline, 2020 will still go down as another year when carbon dioxide levels broke record highs, which remain in the atmosphere for centuries. Emissions in the atmosphere have surpassed 410 parts per million (ppm), according to the World Meteorological Organization. They are also expected to rebound in 2021 compared to 2020.
3. Consumer Trends: As specified in my previous post, a historic moment took place in December 2020 when lab-grown chicken was sold commercially for the first time ever. The first lab-grown hamburger, which initially cost $280,000 when first developed in 2013, could end up costing $10 or less in 2021, according to Reuters. The price of plant-based meat alternatives also continues to decrease and may be more competitive with conventional meat than ever before in 2021.
4. Global Economy: According to the Financial Times official forecast, in 2021 the US and China will not reach a trade deal; sales of the electric car will rise by over 50%; the combined stock market value of the biggest US tech companies will top $8 trillion; and oil prices will stay above $50 a barrel.
These predictions seem quite sound and likely to occur within the next 12 months. But we can never forget that nothing is set in stone, and unforeseen events can change our reality in a flash. This time last year nobody would have been able to predict the events of 2020, with a new virus that “isn’t transmitted easily from person to person.”
Anthropogenic climate change is making hurricanes stronger and more unpredictable. The 2020 hurricane season was record-breaking with regards to destruction and economic costs. 2020 was also the hottest or second hottest year on record for the globe since records began. In July, Baghdad, Iraq broke an all time heat record of 51.8 Celsius (125 F), and the hottest temperature so far north of the Arctic circle was recorded in June, at 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 F), not to mention the catastrophic fires in Australia, the Amazon, and the United States.
Knowing how many weather and climate records will be broken in 2021, and how this will affect economic and social stability, is anyone’s guess.
Just a few hundred years ago one could be forgiven for thinking tomorrow wouldn’t be much different from today, a time when the economy was more localized and far less complex, and the climate system more stable.
Today we live in a completely different world, where making educated predictions is still possible, but with way more wild cards in the mix than ever before.
